Heating bills this winter will depend heavily on fuel. The EIA Winter Fuels Outlook for November 2026 through March 2027 expects homes that heat mainly with natural gas to spend 9% less than last winter, propane homes 3% less, electric-heat homes 4% more, and heating-oil homes 21% more, with oil prices themselves up 34%. A bill forecast, though, doesn't tell you which fuel delivers heat most cheaply. For that, prices have to be converted into a common unit.
Who this helps: homeowners weighing a heat pump, dual fuel, or fuel switch; landlords budgeting for winter; and contractors setting dual-fuel switchover points.
The forecast, by fuel
| Fuel (primary heat) | Forecast price, Nov-Mar | Change in household spending |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas, Northeast | $16.12 per thousand cubic feet | -14% ($879 average) |
| Electricity, Northeast | 26.19 cents per kWh | -3% ($1,637 average) |
| Propane, Northeast | $3.28 per gallon | -15% ($1,687 average) |
| Heating oil, U.S. | $5.26 per gallon | +21% ($2,115 average) |
Source: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook. Northeast spending falls for several fuels partly because EIA expects less heating demand there than last winter. Not every forecaster agrees. NEADA, which represents state energy-assistance programs, projected in September that average heating costs would rise 8.7% nationally. It later raised its heating-oil estimate to about a 50% increase, noting that about 82% of U.S. heating oil is used in the Northeast (NEADA).
Converting to cost per unit of heat
EIA recommends comparing fuels on price per million Btu, because gallons, cubic feet, and kilowatt-hours aren't comparable. We used the EIA conversion factors (1,036 Btu per cubic foot of gas, 3,412 Btu per kWh, 138,500 Btu per gallon of heating oil, 91,452 Btu per gallon of propane), then divided by equipment efficiency to get the cost of heat actually delivered into the house. The chart above shows the results.
Heat pump break-even COP
A heat pump's coefficient of performance (COP) is the heat delivered divided by the electricity used. The break-even COP is the point where the heat pump costs exactly the same to run as the fuel it competes with. At the Northeast forecast prices above:
- Against heating oil (85% efficient): break-even COP of about 1.7. Most modern heat pumps beat this across much of a New Jersey winter.
- Against propane (95% efficient): about 2.0.
- Against an 80% gas furnace: about 3.9.
- Against a 95% gas furnace: about 4.7. At these prices, a heat pump would rarely heat for less than an efficient gas furnace on cost alone.
Why dual fuel keeps showing up: where natural gas is available, these numbers support a dual-fuel setup that uses the heat pump when it's cheapest and comfortable and switches to gas in colder weather. For oil and propane homes, the math leans much more strongly toward a heat pump carrying most of the load. The right switchover point depends on your actual rates, your equipment's published low-temperature performance, and a proper load calculation.
Run your own numbers
- Find your actual rates on your utility or fuel bill. Include delivery charges and taxes, not just the supply price.
- Divide your electric rate (in dollars per kWh) by 0.003412 to get electricity cost per million Btu.
- Divide your gas cost per therm by 0.1, oil cost per gallon by 0.1385, or propane cost per gallon by 0.0915. Then divide by your equipment efficiency (for example, 0.95).
- Divide the electricity number by the fuel number. That's your break-even COP.
Limitations
These are forecasts of regional averages, not your bill. Real electric and gas rates in New Jersey vary by utility, rate plan, and delivery charges. Heat pump COP changes with outdoor temperature, equipment, duct design, and installation quality. Furnace and boiler efficiency in the field is often lower than the rating. Operating cost is also only one factor. Equipment cost, comfort, air conditioning, reliability, and emissions matter too. EIA notes that regional temperatures will strongly influence the actual outcome.
Not an endorsement: this article compares fuels and equipment types, not brands. HVAC Zone Inc is a multi-brand dealer, and the Hub is brand-neutral.
Want your switchover point or fuel-switch math done with your real rates and equipment? Request a consultation with HVAC Zone for a site-specific assessment.