New Jersey sits inside PJM, the grid operator for 13 states and Washington, D.C. Every fall PJM publishes a winter outlook, and this year’s message is mixed. There should be enough power under expected conditions, but the cushion keeps getting thinner, and winter demand keeps setting records.
Who this helps: homeowners with heat pumps or electric heat, people weighing a switch to electric heating, and building owners planning for electric costs.
What PJM expects this winter
According to PJM’s winter outlook, PJM expects about 182,426 MW of operational capacity against a forecast peak of about 147,500 MW. If demand reaches that level, it will be a new winter record, topping the 143,700 MW set on January 22, 2025. In a less likely, higher-stress cold scenario, demand could reach 152,200 MW. PJM says it could still keep the lights on by calling pre-emergency and emergency demand response.
That tool is getting more use. PJM says it activated demand response 15 times in 2025 and 2026, compared with eight times in the previous eight years. It has also received federal emergency authority to direct data centers and other large users onto backup generators as a last resort to avoid residential outages. It has never used that authority.
Why winter peaks are rising
Data centers are the main driver of PJM’s load growth. But PJM’s load forecasting overview also names building electrification: as homes and businesses replace gas heating and water heating with heat pumps, more demand shifts into winter, and the gap between summer and winter peaks is narrowing. The 2026 PJM Load Forecast Report projects winter peak growth averaging 4.0% a year over the next decade.
Last winter tested the system. A joint FERC and NERC staff report on the January 20 to February 10, 2026 cold period found that unplanned generator outages peaked at 68,169 MW across the Eastern and Texas grids on January 26. No electric entity reported manual load shedding (rolling blackouts), but the report warns that long cold snaps strain fuel supply and equipment more each day they last.
Why this matters for heat pumps: the hours when the grid is most stressed are the coldest ones. That is also when a heat pump’s output drops and electric backup strips are most likely to run. A correctly sized cold-climate heat pump with properly set lockouts uses far less power at peak than one leaning on resistance heat. Our guide to heat pump lockout settings explains how to set them.
Capacity prices and New Jersey bills
Grid tightness also shows up in prices. In PJM’s July 2026 capacity auction for June 2028 through May 2029, PJM reports the price cleared at the $325 per MW-day cap across the whole region, and the procured capacity fell 6,831 MW short of the reliability requirement.
New Jersey households on default utility supply buy power through the state’s Basic Generation Service auction. A New Jersey Board of Public Utilities notice shows PSE&G’s 2026 residential auction cleared at about 10.9 cents per kWh for a 36-month supply. The BPU lists the next auction for February 2027, with new rates from June 1, 2027. For context, the New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel noted that bill increases starting June 1, 2025 ranged from about 17% to 20% depending on the utility.
Practical checklist for this winter
| If you have... | Check this |
|---|---|
| A heat pump with electric backup strips | Auxiliary heat lockout set from the system’s balance point, not factory defaults |
| A dual-fuel system | Changeover point set from real equipment output and local fuel prices |
| A smart thermostat | Whether your utility offers a demand response program, and what it controls |
| Electric resistance heat only | Ask about a heat pump estimate and an air sealing assessment before peak season |
| Medical needs or no backup heat | A written outage plan, and generator sizing and transfer switch done to code |
Limitations
PJM’s figures are forecasts for the whole region, not for any one town. Outage risk on the local distribution system (downed lines, ice) is separate from grid supply. Capacity prices are only one part of a power bill, and future auction results may be higher or lower. NERC’s 2026-2027 Winter Reliability Assessment is due around November 18, according to NERC’s published schedule. We will cover it when it’s released.
Not an endorsement: this article discusses grid conditions and equipment types, not brands. HVAC Zone Inc is a multi-brand dealer, and the Hub is brand-neutral.
Want to know how your heat pump or electric heat will hold up, and what it will cost, in a hard cold snap? Request a consultation with HVAC Zone for a site-specific assessment.